Tropical Sea Temperatures

Tropical Sea Temperature Map from WeatherUnderground
Visit Weather Underground Hurricane Weather Center

 

Current US IR Satellite Loop

Satellite loop from WeatherUnderground

 

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 080511
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure centered inland over South Carolina 
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and heavy 
rain over portions of the southeastern United States. The low is 
expected to move east-northeastward toward the coast later today 
and then turn northeastward near or just offshore of the 
Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic states Thursday and Friday, where 
a tropical or subtropical cyclone could form if the low moves 
over water. Regardless of development, the low is expected to 
to produce locally heavy rainfall that could cause flash 
flooding across portions of the southeastern and mid-Atlantic
U.S. during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Wed, 08 Jul 2020 08:33:08 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 080512
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Cristina, located a few hundred miles south of Manzanillo, 
Mexico.

An area of low pressure located about 1000 miles southwest of the 
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Some slow development 
of this system is possible during the next two or three days before 
environmental conditions become unfavorable.  This system is 
expected to generally drift northward during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec late this week or this weekend.  Environmental 
conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a 
tropical depression could form early next week while the system 
moves westward well south of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Summary for Tropical Storm Cristina (EP5/EP052020)

...CRISTINA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO...
 As of 3:00 AM MDT Wed Jul 8
 the center of Cristina was located near 13.9, -106.5
 with movement WNW at 13 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 7

Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020  

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 080832
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052020
300 AM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020
 
...CRISTINA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 106.5W
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was
located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 106.5 West. Cristina is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next few days,
keeping the cyclone well away from the coast of Mexico.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Cristina is expected to become a hurricane on Thursday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 7

Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 08 2020  

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 080832
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052020
0900 UTC WED JUL 08 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 106.5W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 180SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 106.5W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 106.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 14.9N 108.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.1N 109.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.1N 111.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.0N 113.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.0N 115.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.0N 118.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 21.4N 123.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 21.9N 129.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 106.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 7

Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020  

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 080832
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052020
300 AM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020
 
Satellite images indicate that deep convection has been gradually
increasing in association with Cristina during the past several
hours.  However, the storm still lacks banding features and the
low-level center is located on the northeastern side of the
convection due to moderate wind shear.  An ASCAT-B overpass from a
few hours ago showed maximum winds of only 30-35 kt in the
southeastern quadrant.  The initial intensity is held at 40 kt for
this advisory blending the ASCAT data with the 3.0/45 kt Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB.
 
Cristina is forecast to remain over warm SSTs and in a moist air
mass for the next couple of days.  These favorable conditions
combined with lessening wind shear should promote steady
strengthening during the next two days or so.  However, beyond that
time, Cristina is expected to move over waters cooler than 26 C and
into a progressively drier and more stable environment.  These
negative factors for the cyclone should promote weakening after 48
hours.  The new NHC intensity forecast is again nudged downward
from the previous one, but it still lies at the high end of
the guidance in the short term in case Cristina takes advantage of
the generally conducive conditions for intensification.
 
The tropical storm has turned a little to the left recently, but
its longer term motion is still west-northwestward at 13 kt.  A
deep-layer ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. is expected to
remain stationary, and that should cause the cyclone to continue
moving west-northwestward at about the same forward speed for the
next 4 days or so.  By the end of the forecast period, a slight
turn to the west is forecast as the weakening system is expected to
be steered by the low-level flow.  The track models are tightly
packed, and only minor changes were made to the previous NHC
forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0900Z 13.9N 106.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  08/1800Z 14.9N 108.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  09/0600Z 16.1N 109.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  09/1800Z 17.1N 111.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  10/0600Z 18.0N 113.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  10/1800Z 19.0N 115.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  11/0600Z 20.0N 118.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  12/0600Z 21.4N 123.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  13/0600Z 21.9N 129.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Storm Cristina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 08 2020                                              

000
FOPZ15 KNHC 080832
PWSEP5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7         
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052020               
0900 UTC WED JUL 08 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 110W       34  1  22(23)   3(26)   X(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)
15N 110W       50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
15N 110W       64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
20N 110W       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   1( 1)   9(10)   7(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  23(25)  45(70)   X(70)   X(70)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  30(37)   X(37)   X(37)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  18(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
15N 115W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
20N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  40(46)   1(47)   X(47)
20N 115W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)   X(17)   X(17)
20N 115W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
20N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  20(20)  28(48)   X(48)
20N 120W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  13(17)   X(17)
20N 120W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)
 
25N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)  10(22)
20N 125W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
20N 125W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
25N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
20N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)
 
25N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Tropical Storm Cristina Graphics

Tropical Storm Cristina 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 08 Jul 2020 02:39:06 GMT

Tropical Storm Cristina 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 08 Jul 2020 03:24:46 GMT