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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 010512
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms located over the west-central Caribbean 
Sea are associated with a tropical wave. A broad area of low 
pressure is expected to form in a day or so over the northwest 
Caribbean Sea or the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico in the vicinity 
of the wave as it moves slowly west-northwestward. Conditions are 
forecast to be conducive for development thereafter in that region, 
and a tropical depression could form over the weekend as the 
system meanders. Interests in Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula, and 
western Cuba should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Another tropical wave located a couple hundred miles east of the 
Lesser Antilles is producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized 
shower activity.  This disturbance is forecast to move westward 
during the next several days where environmental conditions could 
become a little more conducive for development over the central or 
western Caribbean Sea by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Thu, 01 Oct 2020 08:35:21 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 010520
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Sep 30 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Marie, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip 
of the Baja California peninsula.

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred 
miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico in a few days.  
Thereafter, environmental conditions appear conducive for slow 
development, and a tropical depression could form early next 
week while the system moves west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto

Summary for Hurricane Marie (EP3/EP182020)

...MARIE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TONIGHT...
 As of 2:00 AM PDT Thu Oct 1
 the center of Marie was located near 14.8, -118.1
 with movement W at 17 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 983 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Hurricane Marie Public Advisory Number 9

Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020  

233 
WTPZ33 KNHC 010834
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Marie Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182020
200 AM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020
 
...MARIE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE BY TONIGHT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 118.1W
ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located 
near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 118.1 West.  Marie is moving 
toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is 
expected to continue through tonight, followed by a gradual turn 
toward the west-northwest with decreasing forward speed.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Marie is expected to 
become a major hurricane by tonight with some additional 
strengthening possible through Friday. Marie is then forecast to 
begin weakening this weekend.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Latto

Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 9

Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 01 2020  

269 
WTPZ23 KNHC 010834
TCMEP3
 
HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182020
0900 UTC THU OCT 01 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 118.1W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 240SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 118.1W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 117.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 15.2N 120.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.0N 122.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.9N 125.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  90SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.0N 126.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  25SW  35NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE  90SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.0N 128.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.8N 130.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE  90SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 21.1N 132.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 23.0N 135.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 118.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER LATTO

Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 9

Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020  

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 010835
TCDEP3
 
Hurricane Marie Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182020
200 AM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020
 
Recent microwave data and satellite images indicate that Marie has 
become much better organized over the past several hours, with a 
nearly completely closed eye noted in a 0451Z AMSU composite 
microwave overpass. The initial intensity has been increased to 80 
kt, based on a blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates 
from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMMS ADT and SATCON.
 
Marie appears to have resumed its anticipated rapid intensification 
(RI), and this RI should continue for the next day or so while the 
hurricane remains in an environment of very low vertical wind shear 
while over warm waters. After 48 h, the cyclone is forecast to begin 
moving over progressively cooler waters, while encountering 
increasing vertical wind shear and a drier, more stable atmospheric 
environment. These factors should cause Marie to begin weakening by 
Saturday. Rapid weakening could occur by late this weekend when the 
cyclone is expected to be over waters with SSTs cooler than 26 
degrees C while vertical wind shear becomes greater than 25 kt. The 
latest NHC intensity forecast is very close to the HFIP corrected 
consensus aid HCCA and the DSHP guidance. 

The initial motion is 280/15 kt. Marie is forecast to continue 
moving westward around a subtropical ridge to its north and 
northeast for the next 12 to 24 hours. A gradual turn to the 
west-northwest along with a decrease in forward speed is expected to 
occur beginning later tonight as the ridge weakens slightly. By late 
in the forecast period, a turn to the northwest should occur as 
Maria reaches a break in the ridge. The models are generally in 
good agreement on this scenario, but vary somewhat in how sharp of a 
turn to the right Marie makes later on in the forecast period. The 
latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, 
and lies near the various track consensus models.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0900Z 14.8N 118.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 15.2N 120.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 16.0N 122.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 16.9N 125.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  03/0600Z 18.0N 126.9W  120 KT 140 MPH
 60H  03/1800Z 19.0N 128.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  04/0600Z 19.8N 130.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  05/0600Z 21.1N 132.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  06/0600Z 23.0N 135.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Latto

Hurricane Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 01 2020                                              

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 010834
PWSEP3
                                                                    
HURRICANE MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182020               
0900 UTC THU OCT 01 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 120W       34 98   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
15N 120W       50 87   1(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)
15N 120W       64 54   6(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)
 
15N 125W       34  X   4( 4)  31(35)   2(37)   1(38)   X(38)   X(38)
15N 125W       50  X   X( X)   7( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
15N 125W       64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
20N 125W       34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)  12(16)   6(22)   X(22)   X(22)
20N 125W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
15N 130W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   6( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 
20N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  64(70)   9(79)   1(80)
20N 130W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  36(37)  10(47)   X(47)
20N 130W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  20(20)   6(26)   X(26)
 
25N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
 
20N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  18(21)   8(29)
20N 135W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)
20N 135W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
25N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   8(13)
 
25N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER LATTO

Hurricane Marie Graphics

Hurricane Marie 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 01 Oct 2020 02:51:41 GMT

Hurricane Marie 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 01 Oct 2020 03:25:27 GMT